Game over? ERTS : Bought Put 40 March 2005 @1.05

Even though I think the market to be in a bullish phase right now, I am ready to make a bearish bet on ERTS. Even though Electronic Arts is a great company, has some superb games and has shown incredible growth in the past,I'll write down why I think ERTS stock has topped for the intermediate term

• There just aren't any compulsive games coming out. The craze last year and the year before was definitely for games. As a casual gamer, there were some games that I paid $50 for. Today I can't find any game that is persuasive enough for me to cough up that kind of money. Maybe a few like Halo2, GTA-3 and Half Life2, but anyway those are not ERTS games
  

• Christmas is round the corner and there are a host of other gadgets that people can think of. If someone is a hardcore gamer, they have most likely played all the games this year that they wanted to. They have owned their XBOX or PS2 for a while now and possibly got either the console or a lot of games as gifts. For the casual gamer, if they didn't already buy it at $50, they probably bought their copy of "Allied Assault" or "GTA-Vice City" at a significant discount anyway. Possibly the same people got IPODs last year or bought one this year (Apple stock hasn't been soarin' for nothin'). What do you think a thoughtful gift-giver might decide to gift- another $50 game this year or a $50 gift certificate to itunes? A PS2 or an IPOD mini?
  
• The new XBOX and PS2 consoles should be coming out not too far in the future. ERTS possibly has to spend a lot of money and time developing new games for those consoles rather than for the existing consoles expecting of course that the new games will be a league better than existing ones. Most new games coming this out will be slight variations of existing ones. I expect R&D expenses at ERTS to be up for the year.
• ERTS missed expectations and guided lower in it's most recent quarter. December sales I think will be more disappointing than the company anticipates because of lower holiday sales.
• Also the stock has 99% institutional ownership. When these institutions start unloading, it's going to be ugly. Also the short ratio is at only 4.3 days, not enough for any meaningful short covering to propel the stock higher.
• Technically the stock has formed a classic topping pattern. The trendlines both longterm and shortterm have broken support lines and are now forming clear resistance lines. The downtrend over the from 1st July to now looks quite solid. It has broken support lines twice and this is the first time it's forming a downtrend. The stock had found support at around $48 earlier and now this same level is acting like resistance.
• Right now if the stock doesn't break forcefully above the 200-day MA then the next support is at $44. If it manages to break below this level then there's a lot of possible downside.
• Intraday supports also seem to be breaking and turning into resistance levels
  

I will watch the stock in the next few days for more confirmation from it's intraday price movements. I have initiated an out-of-the money "put" position strike price $40 @1.05 for March 2005. March is the earliest when the holiday results become available. Whether I hold on till expiration depends on the pattern that the stock shows over the coming few days/weeks.

Since one of my goals is not to have more than 10% of trading money in options, at this point, the only reason I'm initiating a put is because I want to limit the loss potential that short selling has. I also prefer staying off a margin account and trade with cash only for now.