Monday, November 22, 2004

Contrary to contrary opinion

Has anyone noticed how lots of "TV people" on CNBC are talking about contrarian indicators pointing one way or another? Contrarian indicators, in my opinion, work best when no one is paying attention to them, that is the essence of "contrary". When everyone is talking about the contrary, it then becomes public opinion and really a true contrarian would take the opposite of the view expressed by the "TV contrarians"

I guess the bursting bubble has made these contrarian indicators too popular and we now need either new indicators or possibly change our view of what really is contrary. Also, contrarian indicators rarely work in a trend. We are in a trend not at an extremity.

Two wrongs don't make a right. However, as a contrarian contrarian, one cannot not observe the negation of positivity on TV (yeah I don't know if it makes sense either)



1 Comments:

At 5:33 PM, Blogger pani5ue said...

Actually I wrote about it last month. Look for an article titled dollar bear in the archives

 

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