Sunday, December 05, 2004

Organic growth stock: United National Foods

I'ts hard to say whether America is obsessed with food or if it's yet another national pastime, but it's definitely on people's minds. Although I haven't really traced back a history of food, there were definitely some events that you can think about. the fast food restaurant, the drive throughs, the donuts, the pepsi-coke wars, the eat-healthy drive, vegeterianism, the raw vergetable diet, the South Beach and the Atkins diets.

The era of Atkins is slowing and maybe eventually coming to an end, what with all the talk about crazy cows and feverish chicken. With this in mind, I believe that organic foods are poised for take off in a big way. Digging through, though not in very much detail, I have found three public companies to play the organis food market.

  • UNFI: United National Foods Inc
  • WFMI : Whole Foods Market
  • OATS : Wild Oats Markets Inc
Of the three, I am possibly going to start a long-term position in UNFI. This is a major supplier of organic foods to many grocery chains including Whole Foods. The "organic" revenue growth of the company, the continued increase in EPS and a recent initiaion of a stock buyback, even when the company stock is at a near high are the reasons for my optimism. Technically, the stock has broken out of a downtrend and forming new highs after a breakout on 11/30-2004. It held to support at the 200-day MA 11/9/2004 after trading under it from 7/29 to 8/30

Since this is a long-term position I wont mess too much with the retraction levels and such. I'll stay put in the position on a quarter by quarter basis as long as the revenues are increasing. I'll sell if the stock has a climax top or a major technical breakdown.

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