Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Blockbuster - no late fees is really not such a good thing

Blockbuster recently announced it's "No more late fees" campaign with much fanfare. As a consumer it does sound nice, but as a strategy for the company it's just terrible.

A consumer point of view
As a consumer, I went to Blockbuster to rent movies, and to return movies. Often, I would rent another movie when I returned one. These round-trips used to make me rent more movies than I currently do. Blockbuster's loss.

The easy road - (What Google can teach Blockbuster and many other companies)

Blockbuster took the easiest, least innovative approach to fight Netflix - lower cost. With the host of stores they have, they could have come up with much more creative and attractive ways to get customers. I have a few ideas on how Blockbuster could better use what they have:
  1. "No more late fees" - but only for the online subscriber. The promotion cost of this campaign, just to get new people to sign up would be really low. For instance, whenever someone tries to turn in a movie late, ask them if they would like to sign up for the 15-day trial and their late fee would be waived. People are very likely to sign up.
  2. Cheap rentals for the online subscriber - $1 instead of $4 if you want to just get a movie without having to wait for it. ("This movie is only $1 if you sign up for our online rental trial")
  3. Returns - Movies that you rent online - either return them in-store or post them. Savings from reduced postage since the store can mail everything to the warehouse.
  4. Also, if Blockbuster spends a little money on their supply chain, they could scan the returned item in-store, consider it returned and dispatch the next movie - something that Netflix can't do and would be attractive to customers - something they can use to fight Netflix. If more customers return in-store than return by mail, then there are even more savings for Blockbuster.
  5. Special stores - turn a quarter of the stores into warehouse-like stores from where only online subscribers can go and rent. This would also be the place where you can return movies and where all the other stores mail returns.
  6. Spend money on IT and supply chaining the stores so that it is much better connected (rather than make outrageous offers for Hollywood)
Really what Blockbuster can learn from Google is that one can be a late entrant to any market and still be successful as long as one is innovative ( gmail maps suggest)

Friday, February 11, 2005

A break, earnings season, stock trades - and such

I've been busy at work and haven't had time and the enrgy to write as much as I would have wanted to. I made a few stock buys and some option trades.

Stock trades

CNXS - CNS Inc - It's a small cap company with solid earnings growth and a great chart pattern right now. I bought the stock at 15.9

CUTR - Cutera Inc - Bought at 17.82 Again a small cap company, IPO'd in the last year with excellent earnings growth and a great chart pattren just breaking out of a base.

Earnings Season and options
Earnings season is a great time to make option trades. So far all my option trades have been "directional" meaning I expect the stock to move in a particular way. Earnings season is a great time to make "bi-directional" stock trades. Also at a time like this where the direction of the market is unpredictable, and still volatility is low, earnings season brings out the subdued volatility in a stock. Also front month options are very cheap especially for stocks that haven't moved in a while. So I have been scanning the earnings calendar and looking for interesting stocks which could either miss or hit earnings. Some interesting trades that I made right before earnings using small bets - LAVA APCC LLL XMSR ISIL NTE A few of them moved and a few of them didn't. It is a strategy I'll explore further.
Ex. if the stock is at $15, buy one $17.5 call and one $12.5 put, the expectation being that the stock will move well on earnings news, irrespective of what the earnings are.

I need some more research on companies which are more likely to react to earnings news or companies that are more likely to have an earnings surprise. I'll monitor Starmine a little closer. If anyone has any other interesting ideas on this, please let me know.

What are my options?
So far my directional option trades haven't done very well, stocks have done well. Some of these bidirectional trades have done well. I'm still debating on whether options are really thing thing for me or if I should stick to stocks...